Russia Ukraine Tank – But, while the battlefield losses are notable, Russia retains a large number of old tanks in long-term storage, currently estimated at 5,000, meaning Moscow can continue to pursue an attritional strategy for some time to come.
In the future, the most important lack of fit is likely to come over ending the war, especially over Ukraine’s intention of recapturing Crimea from Russia. The key here will be the stance of Ukraine’s indispensable backer, the US administration. Today, Volodymyr Zelenskiy finally got some of what he asked for when he flew to Washington before Christmas, but in achieving this he has inescapably placed more of Ukraine’s future in the hands of Joe Biden.
Russia Ukraine Tank
“Russia’s actions over the past year have raised questions not only over the competence of its military and senior military leadership, but also over command cohesion,” he said, launching the IISS’s annual Military Balance audit of the world’s armed forces.
The question is whether the tanks can be deployed in time to help the country stave off a new Russian offensive expected in the coming weeks or months — or to lead the charge in a Ukrainian counteroffensive against Moscow.
Russian overoptimism meant that it suffered heavy tank losses at the beginning of the war, particularly in the abortive attack on Kyiv, where large numbers of tanks and armoured vehicles moving in a convoy were destroyed on roads north of the capital. Many others were captured or towed off by tractors as the assault failed.
Fighting around the town has been ongoing since March 2022, but has been escalating since Jan. 24 when Russia launched a renewed offensive. It’s seen as the first part of an expected spring offensive, and so far is not going well. Exact losses are unconfirmed; Ukraine’s military claims that in mid-February Russia lost 36 tanks. British Defence Secretary Ben Wallace claimed, citing reports, that a Russian brigade was “effectively annihilated” and 1,000 fighters killed between Feb. 14-15. Despite those losses, Russia is continuing its push, and with that still trying to move its armor forward, directly into Ukrainian landmines. And the results are the same. Videos show lead tanks getting disabled and the following tanks struggling to maneuver without meeting the same fate.
Video from Ukraine’s 72nd Mechanized Brigade in Vuhledar. It shows a Russian T-72B-series tank hitting a mine where a T-80BV, two BMP-3, and a BTR were apparently previously damaged/abandoned by mines. Two BMPs then turn around. https://t.co/qMDgNdhH3D pic.twitter.com/TEmEgiOkqy
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Nicholas Slayton
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Published Feb 25, 2023 3:07 PM EST
“Every received projectile, every unit of weapons and equipment is a saved life of Ukrainian military and civilians. Thanks to the help of our partners, we are holding on and will definitely win,” Zaluzhnyi said in a statement.
Yet the plain fact is that the need to defend Ukraine and to hold back the Russian threat transcends all of them. Scholz has finally crossed a Rubicon, albeit in a characteristically cautious manner that may serve to undermine some of his own objectives.
According to British intelligence, there is concentrated Russian vehicle losses in the town. U.K.’s Ministry of Defence said Russia lost elements of its 155th Naval Infantry (NI) Brigade, which has been at the forefront of “recent costly offensives.”
That might give it “tactical advantage”, Barry said, if accompanied by enough ammunition and spare parts. Even so, the analyst and former tank commander said, it was not clear “that Kyiv has enough combat power to rapidly eject Russian forces”.
Ukraine, however, has seen its tank count go up to 953 from 858 because it has partly offset its own losses by capturing an estimated 500 from Russia, of which it has “pressed a fair amount into service”, according to the IISS analyst Henry Boyd. It has also had significant donations from Poland, the Czech Republic and other states with Soviet-era armour, but its tank force is currently still half the size of Russia’s.
The first is that battle tanks give Ukraine a military advantage that, in the words of Ed Arnold of the Royal United Services Institute, could be transformative. The three types of western battle tank now being committed to Ukraine – the US’s M1 Abrams, Germany’s Leopard 2 and the UK’s Challenger 2 – are all significantly more powerful than the Soviet-era T-72s that form the bulk of the Russian and Ukrainian tank forces. The same goes for the French Leclerc tanks, whose dispatch to Ukraine has not been ruled out either.
There has been little sign of an improvement in tank tactics, with several dozen tanks estimated to have been lost in fighting since late January in a so far unsuccessful attempt to seize the Donbas town of Vuhledar. By using reconnaissance drones, Ukraine has been able knock out tanks with its artillery.
Russia’s attempts at an offensive near Vuhledar, as much of the fighting in the Donbas region turned into an effective standstill, with neither side able to break through. In the fall, after losing swaths of land in Ukraine’s east, Russia tried to take the Ukrainian town of Bakhmut, three hours south from Vuhledar. That has turned into a battle of attrition, with trench warfare and devastated no man’s land straight out of World War I. Despite heavy amounts of artillery, armor and drones, neither side has been able to break through the other’s lines.
UNESCO Director General Audrey Azoulay said Odesa was a “free city, a world city and a legendary port” that was now under “reinforced protection,” as the U.N. will now ensure that repairs are made to any damage inflicted on central Odesa amid Russia’s war on Ukraine. Russia tried to block the UNESCO designation, and then denounced it.
Barry concluded that, as a result, “we can expect another bloody year” in which the fighting would be unpredictable – after a period in which it is estimated that least 200,000 people have been killed or wounded on both sides.
Mines have played a key role in the fighting in Ukraine over the past year. After their initial invasion last year failed to take Kyiv, Russian forces pulled back, mining roads and fields. Groups are working to de-mine those areas to make them safe for civilians.
There is also the not inconsiderable matter of getting the tanks to the frontline. The US’s tanks are apparently still in North America. They also need a lot of backup. The New York Times reported US officials warning that deployment could take years. Germany’s Leopards, by contrast, are in Europe and can be serviced in Ukraine’s neighbouring countries. All the same, they all have to get to the battlefield. Proper supply and maintenance lines must be established. This is a necessarily secretive area, but deployment will not happen at the flick of a switch.
There is no doubt now that western attitudes have hardened and Ukraine’s allies agree a pivotal moment in the war is being reached. The commitment of tanks confirms that the pivot is now towards a push for Ukrainian victory. But the uncertainty about numbers and logistics in the tank deployment is not simply down to the need for secrecy. It also reflects continuing political ambivalences.
It’s not clear exactly how long it will take European NATO countries to move Leopard 2 tanks into Ukraine in significant numbers and train the country’s forces to use them, but Germany’s leader said that training would begin on German soil within just days.
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“The defeat of a nuclear power in a conventional war can trigger a nuclear war,” former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, who now serves as deputy chairman of the Security Council, said in a post on the Telegram messaging app.
While the 31 American tanks won’t actually reach the battlefields of eastern Ukraine for months, given the need to train and equip Ukrainian forces to use the advanced hardware, the commitment from Mr. Biden came with a similar promise from Germany to send Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine — and to permit other European nations to send German-made Leopards from their stocks.
These western tanks all have greater mobility, more lethal firepower and stronger armour than those used by Russia. This also makes them heavier, which gives the lighter Russian tanks an advantage on boggy ground, of which there is no shortage in Ukraine once the thaw takes place. Even so, the modern western tanks’ control and navigation systems give them an all-round ability to operate in combined manoeuvres involving artillery and infantry, including at night, that the Russians cannot match.
Russia launched a wave of new missile and drone attacks against Ukraine Thursday, killing at least 11 people, including one in the capital Kyiv, according to emergency officials, and targeting the country’s already-battered energy infrastructure. The strikes forced officials to switch off the electricity in a couple regions to cope with reduced capacity.
Russia sent mixed signals in the wake of the Wednesday announcements by Washington and Berlin, playing down the strategic value of the Western military hardware to Ukraine, but also renewing warnings about the risks of the war growing into a wider regional conflict as NATO states increase their stake in the fight.
Russian troops had anticipated being welcomed in Ukraine, and in some cases carried parade dress in the belief that after a blitzkrieg, the tanks would be used to stage a parade in Kyiv’s streets. Instead, they were picked off by Ukrainian artillery and infantry using anti-tank weapons.
Along with its own Soviet-era mines, Ukraine has a supply of American remote anti-armor mine systems, which the United States provided approximately 6,000 of in late 2022. Right now, Ukrainian forces at Vuhledar are outnumbered when it comes to armor — the first Leopard tanks donated by Poland arrived in Ukraine on Friday — but the last two weeks have shown its mines are enough to hold back Russian tanks, at least for now.
The Russian missiles that hit critical power infrastructure in Odesa and the other regions, and killed 11 people, were a stark reminder, meanwhile, that the war Vladimir Putin launched almost one year ago is far from over.
The final reason why this week’s announcements matter is that this is now, more clearly than before, a western war against Russia over the independence of Ukraine. That is not to say it is a war the west has sought. Nor that Ukraine’s forces are simply proxies for western interests; that argument, as Prof Lawrence Freedman says, would deny Ukrainians the agency they manifestly possess. Nor are the west’s aims other than defensive; they do not extend beyond helping to liberate Ukraine from its invaders.
These advantages give western tanks the potential to break through Russian lines and control the shape of the conflict across significant stretches of occupied territory. The tanks would also play a key role in defending Ukrainian lines against counterattack. But the most alluring potential of these weapons to Ukraine and its allies is that, if they are as successful as the hype implies, they could eventually put Kyiv in a position to dictate ceasefire and peace terms to Moscow.
Kyiv is hoping to receive a wave of western tanks and fighting vehicles over the next couple of months, which it plans to use to achieve a battlefield breakthrough. German defence minister Boris Pistorius however cautioned on Wednesday it so far only has “half a battalion” of Leopard 2 tanks to send to Ukraine, 14 newer A6 type Leopard tanks in addition to three from Portugal.
Russia’s army is estimated to have lost nearly 40% of its prewar fleet of tanks after nine months of fighting in Ukraine, according to a count by the specialist thinktank the International Institute of Strategic Studies (IISS).
Emma Nehls is a military writer and historian with a passion for exploring the intricacies of warfare and the human experience within the military. With extensive knowledge and a deep understanding of military strategy, tactics, and historical contexts, Nehls brings a unique perspective to his writings.
